"GunnAllen and their clients own somewhere around 60% of GUMM."
OT - Dutch answer to GUMM question here
by: ROE_GAIN 07/07/99 10:50 pm
Msg: 5868 of 83793
Dutch,
As you know the GUMM board can be pretty brutal, so I didn't want to offer any new or speculative info and have it questioned by 20 people.
My understanding for the recent run up is GunnAllen is changing their clearinghouse and their policy is to not to lend shares on margin for short sales. That is significant due to the 20% of the float short interest in GUMM and the fact that GunnAllen and their clients own somewhere around 60% of GUMM. Supposedly, a letter (hence uptic's reference to stamps) went out today stating those shorts must cover sometime soon. I have not confirmed any of this personally, but I believe it to be true based on the explosive volume with no news. We will know very shortly, so if you are planning on getting in, I would do it soon.
Also, you had a question on store committments and I have not heard anything concrete as of yet. Makemilns talked to IR and they gave the the figure of 35,000 - 50,000 stores this fall. I am in a related industry and most products like this ask for estimated usage or "bookings" to plan production. I believe their estimates were based on those and a manager from Albertson's posted that Zicam was in the master slotting plan. Once again we should know shortly because PO's should be placed soon for September delivery.
Finally, the gross profit per unit is estimated at 1.80. This is based on a $6.00 wholesale price to Albertson's last spring and an industry standard 50% GP. GUMM's 60% ownership was factored giving a GP to GUMM of 1.80 per unit. The amount reinvested by GUMM for R&D, etc. is unknown, but my impression of the 3.5 million given to Gel Tech from the Citadel financing appeared to be a lump some for all future investment needs for Zicam.
Bottom line, I think now is a good time to buy because the short squeeze seems very likely. Maybe take some or all off the table, but I would really recommend being in by mid-September. If Zicam gets the press I believe it is capable of, I think 25-30 is very realistic 6-7 month target. I also think they will be profitable in the 4th quarter and the generic nicorette could be another shot in the arm. Tremendous upside from here!
I will respond to any other questions you have over there, but as you already know Makemilns and Gummtechwatcher are usually the first to post their findings.
Good luck!
finance.messages.yahoo.com
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"Jay Gunn 1-800-713-4046 his long term clients own over 4 million shares and they have no intention to sell until the company gets bought out.(Talk to him about the buyout price of GUMM)"
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To:Bo Didley who wrote (7)
From: J. Gunn,Jr Friday, Jan 22, 1999 1:47 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 130
Any information credited to me by bo didley or any other person or message board is inaccurate and unauthorized. I have made no previous postings regarding any stock and I will make no future postings.
J. Gunn
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BO DOES KNOW DIDDLY-> "GunnAllen Financial
Jay Gunn 1-800-713-4046
his long term clients own over 4 million shares
and they have no intention to sell until the company gets bought out.
(Talk to him about the buyout price of GUMM)
bo"
To:Howard D. Epstein, M.D. who wrote (6)
From: Bo Didley Thursday, Jan 21, 1999 1:42 PM
View Replies (3) | Respond to of 130
GUMM --- STRONG BUY RATING -- $24
We are reiterating our Buy rating on GumTech International with a FY 1999 price objective of $24. This price objective is based on sales estimates of $23.5 million and $56.1 million for FY1999 and FY2000, respectively. Based on our sales estimates, GumTech could post per share earnings of $.47 for FY1999 and $1.64 for FY2000.
We continue to de-emphasize Q3 and Q4 operating results, however, based on the infancy of new product lines including Breath Asure and Ranir, and to some extent the dental gum market, while maintaining a bullish longer-term outlook. Shipments of these new gums into distribution channels have commenced, and primary indications point to strong demand for both products.
We believe that Breath Asure could capture 8.9% of the $390 million dental gum market by FY2000, while Ranir could capture as much as 7.1%. During this period we are confident that at least one, if not several, branded oral care companies will be participating in the market for dental gums.
Since the FDA apparently views plaque as a disease, and any products claiming to reduce plaque are considered to be drugs, we view GumTech's sole position as a U.S. gum manufacturing facility that currently follows the Food and Drug Administration's "drug Good Manufacturing Practices" as a clear competitive advantage in the dental gum market.
Although we decline to cite a definitive time frame, GumTech should commence domestic and international distribution of nicotine (drug) containing gums, as well as further penetrate the market for diet aiding gums, by FY 2000.
GunnAllen Financial
Jay Gunn 1-800-713-4046
his long term clients own over 4 million shares
and they have no intention to sell until the company gets bought out.
(Talk to him about the buyout price of GUMM)
bo |
