Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders

LRCX 238.43

+7.0%

12:58 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4883)	10/13/2003 6:01:27 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Read Replies (2) of 5867

Wow, you guys are real bulls on the capex names for the next 16 months. I have been concerned, not particularly in Lam's case, but AMAT, KLAC and NVLS never reached trough levels seen in past downturns, namely trading near 1X Sales and Book or less at the trough. In fact NVLS and KLAC have maintained quite generous ratios, despite business being bad, NVLS is sporting a P/E north of 50 for next year's expected earnings. Much recent capex has been technology purchases and not much additional capacity, so some "oomph" may happen in a few quarters, but I can't say I'm so sanguine on the world economy and semi growth in general, so $60 seems far away. With the re-inflated liquidity/bubble rally here, danger signs abound, but the numbers will probably be encouraging enough to get the Naz to 2200 sometime in the 1st quarter 2004, but I can't help but feel this is going to end badly without some serious fundamental improvement soon, IMHO. A-M-S

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