It would show up in some form in withholding taxes, and that's why I'm following the Daily Treasury Statement (see link under "lab tools"). The telemarketing and mortgage layoffs may be starting to show up? Something is.
The latest week, was another poor one: 19,969 (03) vs 20,187 (02) -1.1% Then the start of the next week comparing Fri 10-10-2003 with 10-11-2002 was 4,687 vs 4,969, so an ugly six day comparison with last year. Tomorrow would be the two day report covering Columbus Day, and it might be illustrative?
and that's on top of a weak one the week before:
8/22-8/28/03 19,208 +0.1% 8/23-08/29/02 19,180
8/29-9/04 32,387 -0.9% 8/30-9/05 32,683
9/05-9/11 18,632 -1.4% 9/6-9/12 18,900
9/12-9/18 29,769 -2.9% 9/13-9/19 30,644
9/19- 9/25 21,943 +5.6% 9/20-9/26 20,748
9/26-10/2 33,670 +1.8% 9/26-10/2 33,084
10/3-10/6 12,236 -1.9% 10/4-10/7 12,479
On retail sales, look at Mitsubishi report. No more easy comparisons against the very weak July-August numbers of 2002. Tougher comparisons, and this week's report showed a slow down:
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