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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: epicure who wrote (116910)	10/15/2003 10:58:54 AM
From: FaultLine	Read Replies (1) of 281500

The failing states of the Caucasus -- By Stephen Blank Excellent read, X. Thanks. The proximate and long-term structural causes of potential failure are different in each case, but ultimately they trace back to the inability to establish firm, legitimate and competent governance at home, a situation which inevitably invites external meddling and ongoing political violence. [Haidar Aliyev and the Azeri elete] have put up his son, Ilham Aliyev, as the candidate to succeed him in an effort to emulate what might be called the "Syrian or dynastic scenario". This scenario appears to be increasingly popular among rulers in Central Asia and the Caspian as they begin to contemplate their mortality, and fear for the fortunes of their family after their rule comes to an end.

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