re: failing states of the Caucasus
Another good article from the Asia Times.
The Azeri nation is half in Iran, and only half in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has a large Armenian enclave, that wants to join Armenia. As is the case in Africa, the boundaries were drawn in the 19th Century, by foreign Generals and diplomats, without any regard for the natural demographic boundaries.
Georgia needs to do what Estonia and Slovenia are doing: join NATO and the EU. This is their path to freedom from Russian and Serb colonialisms. Romania and Bulgaria will join the EU around 2007, and that brings the EU to the Black Sea. Georgia lies on the other side of the Black Sea. If Cyprus (which is closer to Asia and Africa than to the European mainland) can join, Georgia should be able to. To even be considered for inclusion, they must do a long list of things they aren't doing now, and have no history of ever doing: rule of law, minority rights, freedom of expression, etc.
Oil from the ex-USSR is touted as an alternative to Persian Gulf oil. But this area is no more stable, and supplies will be no more reliable. We will be stuck doing the same ugly solutions as in Saudi Arabia, sending our soldiers to prop up thugocracies. |
