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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: Proud Deplorable who wrote (22362)10/16/2003 11:09:19 AM
From: Elizabeth Andrews  Read Replies (1) of 39344
 
Ralph,

There's a point in every stock's history that it fully discounts the best case scenario. In my view IVN is there now. Comparing this deposit to Voisey's Bay is ridiculous due to the fact that Voisey’s has the potential to control the price of nickel as it will make INCO the lowest cost producer in the world, thus giving them considerable power in this much smaller market. This is not the case with IVN, so your initial case for a bidding war is on very shaky ground. There are many copper deposits that will come on stream especially the gold rich porphyries, which are lower cost open pit producers.

Now from an economic point of view, if any major were to buy IVN at its current market cap of C$2.8 billion they would be faced with additional development expenditures of at least C$500 million bring the total invested capital to C$3.3 billion. This doesn’t include any of the infrastructures required to put a concentrate producer into production.

If payback is required in 4 years then the mine will have to produce C$825 million per year of net cash flow (after all taxes and interest and all cash expenses) to repay the capital at zero interest rate. That’s the number you have to be comfortable with right now or you are part of the bubble.

The real estate comparison is also specious but that’s for another day.
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