The Hydrogen Highway: Hype or a Happening?
by Larry E. Hall
Three questions everybody wants answered about hydrogen fuel cell vehicles today are: how soon, how good, and how much? The answers are: who knows, it's hard to say, and it's anybody's guess.
The F-Cell is a fifth generation fuel cell vehicle based on the European Mercedes-Benz A-Class. DaimlerChrysler announced it will begin fleet tests of the F-Cell this fall and will eventually have 60 vehicles on roads in the United States, Germany, Japan and Singapore.
The Natrium fuel cell concept vehicle, based on the popular Chrysler minivan, produces hydrogen on demand for the fuel cell from sodium boro-hydride (a compound related to borax, a naturally occurring substance found in laundry soap).
The latest generation Focus FCV combines hybrid electric vehicle technology with fuel cell and compressed hydrogen storage tank components. A battery pack made up of 180 individual D-size batteries is used during vehicle launch, and assists the fuel cell system with more acceleration when needed.
The Ford H2ICE is powered by the first supercharged hydrogen internal combustion engine. While Ford is committed to the fuel cell, the company says because the H2ICE uses conventional vehicle technology, these vehicles could be produced in meaningful numbers in just a couple of years.
Teaming up with Federal Express, the General Motors HydroGen3 will become the first commercial test of a fuel cell vehicle in Japan. Based on the European Opel Zafira MPV, the HydroGen3 has a range of 250 miles and a top speed of 100 mph.
The General Motors Hy-Wire fuel cell concept vehicle has played a staring role in attracting attention to this emerging technology. With its "skateboard" chassis, drive-by-wire electric controls for steering and braking along with changeable body styles, this is GM's vision of reinventing the automobile.
The first five of 30 FCX fuel cell vehicles Honda plans to produce by the end of this year were delivered to the City of Los Angeles last December for use in the city's fleet. The FCX has an actual driving range of up to 170 miles and a top speed of 85 mph.
Nissan is in its second year of a five-year program with Renault to develop fuel cell power plants. Currently, Nissan is testing an Xterra sport utility based fuel cell vehicle in the U.S.
The Toyota Highlander SUV-based FCHV borrows technology from the Prius hybrid vehicle like the use of nickel-metal hydride batteries to store electricity generated by the fuel cell. The vehicle has a range of more than 180 miles between refuelings and a top speed of nearly 95 mph.
This Toyota Fine-S concept competes with the GM Hy-Wire concept for a high-style fuel cell vehicle. The design demonstrates the flexibility offered by less bulky fuel cell powertrains.
The fact of the matter is, fuel cell vehicles for general consumption are still years away from showing up in car dealer showrooms. Yes, there are upwards of 125 of these vehicles that are being tested on streets and highways around the globe, including buses, and a delivery van; however, a real world hydrogen fuel cell electric car for everyday driving is still a long way off.
Which brings up another question. Is this trip down the hydrogen highway just hype, or is it a happening?
Too Much Hype, Too Soon?
Ask any car company that has a development program for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles when consumers can expect to drive one, and there is a fairly pat answer—"around the end of this decade or a little longer."
Talk with oil companies, who are now referring to themselves as energy companies with plans to play a major role in the production and distribution of hydrogen, and their estimates of when hydrogen might be readily available to fuel cars and their responses are different, but also pretty much in concert—"over the next few decades" is their guesstimate.
Hmmm, that's a fairly large disparity between the two time projections. Whichever answer is closest to being correct, it confirms that the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell cars is still a long way off.
Yet, recently the media began to hail the attributes of fuel cell vehicles, romancing the public with sound bites and pseudo-facts about zero emissions, cleaning the air, and quiet, efficient, environmentally friendly transportation.
Automakers have been actively exploring hydrogen as an alternative fuel for more than 20 years, and began serious research into fuel cells starting in the early 1990s, with only occasional mentions by the press. The recent fanfare has been fueled by several events that occurred in short succession.
First, last September at the 2002 Paris Motor Show, General Motors unveiled the Hy-Wire, a fuel cell concept car that featured a "skateboard" chassis and electric drive-by-wire controls. The futuristic looking Hy-Wire became a live wire, with its image appearing on TV screens, computer screens, and in newspapers and magazines.
Three months later in December, Honda and Toyota made headlines when they announced that the first hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles in the United States were hitting the roads in California.
Honda handed the keys to five of its four-passenger FCX vehicle to the city of Los Angeles for long-term test research; Toyota delivered the first two of six FCHVs, a so-called fuel cell hybrid based on the Highlander SUV, to the University of California, Irvine and the University of California, Davis for the same purpose. Both companies said the deliveries were historic.
The Bush Push
Then in January, the subject became front page news. In his State of the Union address, President Bush asked for Congressional approval of $1.2 billion toward the development of a hydrogen economy. The money would be used for commercially viable hydrogen fuel cells to power vehicles, homes and businesses that produce no pollution and no greenhouse gases.
The President suggested that "the first car driven by a child born today (2003) could be powered by hydrogen, and pollution free."
Over the next few days, fueled by sound bites and headlines, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles became a topic of discussion around the office water cooler and at social gatherings.
Not everyone assesses the widespread coverage of fuel cell cars as hype. Alan Traub, the executive director of science laboratories at General Motors views the exposure as beneficial to the public. "When new technologies and new ideas, like fuel cells, like the Hy-Wire, emanate, there is a lot of media attention, but that exposure brings forth discourse that wouldn't happen otherwise."
George Peterson, president of Auto Pacific, an automotive marketing and consulting firm in Tustin, Calif., views the publicity on fuel cell vehicles as perhaps setting up consumers with high expectations for a technology that may never become reality, not unlike the attention given to electric vehicles in the 1990s.
Peterson does believe the information about fuel cells is better delivered, however, and that consumers are aware that vehicles are still a long way off.
Critics and Cynics
For every hydrogen and fuel cell advocate, there's a critic or cynic. Many opponents of hydrogen powered vehicles, including those in the environmental community, say it may not be good science or technology.
For example, the ideal way to obtain hydrogen is to separate it from water by using alternative energy sources like wind and solar power because the hydrogen is pure. However, that is not yet cost effective.
So, the most likely source for some time would be "transition" hydrocarbon fuels such as natural gas, gasoline and methanol, whereby hydrogen is made by using a "reformer."
Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology say this method uses substantial energy and emits greenhouse gases.
Others cite the enormous cost of building a new distribution infrastructure to make refueling with hydrogen as convenient as today's corner gas station. Still others are concerned about safety—storage of hydrogen at the fill-up location and on-board the vehicle.
A confessed cynic is J.D. Power and Associates auto analyst, Walter McManus. "Change is gradual, and change will come only with real pressure," said McManus. "Right now, there is no pressure to switch from petroleum to fuel cells because gasoline is still cheap, and there doesn't seem to be a shortage of oil supplies."
Outspoken fuel cell critic Todd Turner, president of automotive consulting firm Car Concepts in Thousand Oaks, Calif., says all the hoopla over fuel cell vehicles is premature and the technology is still experimental.
We've Been Down This Road Before
Like Peterson, McManus sees the rush towards fuel cells as a possible parallel to the electric vehicle panacea of the '90s.
The panic to produce electrics started in 1990 when California adopted rules that required car companies to sell "zero emission vehicles" (ZEVs)—two percent beginning in 1998, five percent by 2001, and 10 percent by 2003—or pull out of the state. With California representing 12 percent of U.S. car sales, the rush was on.
In 1991, Congressional bills were introduced to spend $60 million to jump start electric car development, promising an "automobile revolution" that would reduce air pollution and oil consumption.
General Motors wowed the press in 1993 with the Impact prototype two-seat electric car, capable of a zero to 60 mph time of eight seconds. By the time 1998 rolled around, every major automaker that sold cars in the U.S. had an electric vehicle available to lease, mostly to government or business fleets. Eventually, California eased off, and then cancelled the ZEV mandate. Only around 2,000 electric vehicles found their way to streets and highways.
Wait, What About Hydrogen Fueled Internal Combustion Engines?
Virtually all the fanfare about hydrogen and automobiles of late fixate on fuel cells. One automobile company has championed the internal combustion engine for more than two decades.
"For nearly 25 years, BMW has been the lone wolf in developing a hydrogen fueled internal combustion engine vehicle," said BMW Group spokesperson, David Buchko. "We have researched other hydrogen technologies extensively, and have a commitment to the hydrogen combustion engine."
BMW's approach is a bi-fuel system, using both hydrogen and gasoline. The company envisions a hydrogen powered BMW on the road by the end of this decade.
Recently, Ford unveiled a supercharged hydrogen combustion engine powered vehicle. The company says it is dedicated to the idea of fuel cell powertrains in mass produced consumer vehicles.
However, since fuel cells are not ready for production in the near term, Ford regards the hydrogen combustion engine as a "bridging" strategy to stimulate a hydrogen infrastructure and related technologies.
The Race Is On
Currently, nine automakers from around the world are showing off either a hydrogen fuel cell or hydrogen combustion engine passenger vehicle in the United States.
Four companies—BMW, General Motors, Honda and Toyota—are currently, or have just completed "real world" test research.
DaimlerChrysler and Ford have just announced similar programs that will begin in the next few months, while Hyundai, Nissan, and Volkswagen have yet to announce any plans.
Some industry analysts are giving GM the nod in the race to be the first to deliver affordable fuel cell vehicles to the public, and not just because they have a huge development budget.
The type of fuel cell that produces energy for vehicles, the proton exchange membrane (PEM), is also applicable for use in stationary power units that can produce electricity for home and commercial applications. GM plans to enter that market where the benefit is volume production of fuel cell components, which will help lower the cost of fuel cells for vehicles, giving GM a competitive cost advantage.
The fact that Honda and Toyota were first to deliver government certified fuel cell vehicles for commercial testing in the U.S. can't be overlooked.
Ben Knight, vice resident of Honda R&D in Torrance, Calif., believes the automaker's technology experience with hybrid, compressed natural gas and electric vehicles provides a competitive edge with fuel cell vehicles.
Of course, the other car companies also have similar technical knowledge of these vehicle systems and are transferring them to fuel cell vehicles.
Who would guess what, if any, head start DaimlerChrysler might gain with the delivery of 30 fuel cell buses this year in Europe?
The race down the hydrogen highway has started, but it's not an absolute sure bet that any of the contestants will ever finish.
Perhaps the retired chief executive of Ford Motor Co., Alex Troutman, said it best in a 1994 Forbes article about electric vehicles: "We've spent hundreds of millions on things that didn't work. When we spent the money, we didn't know they wouldn't work."
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