The Milluennium Crash thousand miles journey has begun Friday.
The anatomy of the top:
1. The Market is very agitated, covering over 1% from low to high in 2 out of 3 sessions, many times reversing and completing double action before the day's end.
2. After last small correction before Humphry Hawkins, an almost continuous run to top exactly with your prediction, crowning you King Kahuna.
3. Forgotten sectors making a run to keep up with the market core, the broad market at its best while many of the blue chips have no oxigen to keep climbing. SOX and GM as most conspicuouse example.
4. The bull is dead but still moving. The market double tops and no one notices. Everyone thinks we'll see it higher in a trading session or two.
The anatomy of reversal:
1. BK thread very quiet last week, mostly chat of what stock to go long (!) after some premature wolf cries the week before. Many bears breaking under the pressure.
2. KO closing way below 68 Thursday confirming my wolf cry. KO is in my mind a very good bear indicator since all agree it is overvalued, and no one had the guts to short it (I'm exaggerating, please insert the appropriate diminituative remarks), so it just hung in there, waiting for the mercy blow. As the major holding of the ultimate bull of the last 15 years, it was a most fashionable stock, meaning its price had nothing to do lately with co performance, and being a very visible stock makes it a supreme candidate for bear confirmation.
(This may be also true for GE and others, but see which got hit the most Friday)
3. The trigger- History will judge weather it was the bond market, KO's warning, a match company going out of business or the appearance of a new thread on SI predicting a crash.
4. Thursday the Dow is taking a 100 points hit late in the session, and Friday 150 points more. SPX finaly drops below the bottom of the channel. Print this secapl.com
and draw the lines from my "Why the bull..." posts.
Kosh: "And so, it has begun"
Arik. |
