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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (26406)	10/16/2003 5:59:24 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) of 206087

Ed: Losing patience, I nearly pucked all my shares and went all cash yesterday. But sanity overcame me and I decided I could not foreswear myself never to invest in the patch again. Nor did I think I could find a better reentry point for the majority of my equity. So I am about 10% cash. <<Analysts expect their revenues to skyrocket 15% over 3Q, but the rig counts so far are not supporting that kinda increase.>> PTEN has dropped $10 from its recent peak. Published Earnings expectations have been reduced and the market is not pricing in much if any increase in activity over the next year in my estimation. Drilling activity is at its peak level this cycle and production is still dropping like a rock. So when that cash gets to put to work the incremental rig activity will be causing rises in day rates. As PTEN rolls off older lower day rate contracts the earnings picture improves. So far the E&P's have only shown one place where they have been willing to chase NG, that is on land. Anyone buying or holding PTEN now is not buying for 4Q earnings, but 2004 earnings.

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