Erik,
Numbers are fine, but what you make out of it and what are future projection/assumption? Obviously we differ here.
1. Collaborative R&D revenue are: ~22 M from J&J (40% of V development cost and ~22 M from Bayer/Aventis.
2. Going forward OTHER R&D revenue will decrease to $5-7 M/Q (from Aventis).
3. At this time I will not add any new collaborative R&D revenue.
4. J&J R&D payment will be ~20M/Q for 2004, take or add few millions.
5. At this time I will not add any J&J milestones, while cumulative it may be 60-70 M for 2004.
6. You are assuming(???) that S,G&A as well R&D expense will continue to growth in 2004. S,G&A expense will be flat per Q in 2004 (no need to increase promotion beyond current level), while R&D expense may continue to decline. Due to further cuts, better selection of the clinical candidates, and focused spending.
7. COGS will improve, due to higher level of the V sale.
So, for 4Q-2004 IF V reach $80M in sale and IF I sale is $95M (I am still counting on slow grow) my projection is:
Revenue: Vs-80M, Is-58M, VR&D-20M, otherR&D-8M, VM-10M (you may exclude this milestone), V(EU)r-3.7M (25% of 15M), + some small numbers(?)..=180M.
Expense: COGS-25M, S,G&A-40M, R&D-110M,....=175M
I will agree that my projection of 80M may be bit aggressive, but there is option for some collaborative revenue from after-PIIa collaboration or license, or some early stage collaboration. In addition option for Japan V-license.
All in all, break even at 4Q-04/1Q-05 is not far from reality, imo.
Miljenko |
