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Technology Stocks : TLAB info?

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To: Bob Monard who started this subject10/16/2003 8:55:54 PM
From: mopgcw   of 7342
 
GS Note: Tellabs, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2003E ($0.26), 2004E $0.01 In-Line/Neutral
(TLAB) $7.46

No Upside. Despite two positive catalysts on the horizon, we see limited upside to
shares. The two positive catalysts are: #1 earnings estimates increasing on further
cost cuts, and #2 contract announcements for new products. Beyond these near-term
catalysts, Tellabs' 80%+ exposure to declining market segments and low level of new
product traction will not likely generate strong enough top-line growth to drive
sustainable share price appreciation. Expectations of 7% sales growth into 2004 are
already reflected in shares. Additionally, we believe current valuation levels reflect a
strong outlook. Excluding cash, shares trade 42x our new 2005 estimates, and 25x
the high side of FirstCall consensus estimates - this is too high a multiple for a low
single digit growth stock and well above pre-bubble normal levels. We retain IL/N
rating.
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