AL QAEDA'S NEW COURSE By AMIR TAHERI
Several thoughts on that article Brumar...
1.) I firmly believe that Osama Bin Laden is dead and Zawahiri has taken over day to day operations of Al-Qaeda, potentially in league with Saad Bin Laden (operating out of Iran). The fact that Zawahiri has only in the last year taken on the role of "face man" for Al-Qaeda is indicative that Osama is dead.
Azzam delivered his answer in a sermon in Peshawar, Pakistan. It was simple: The movement must consolidate its position in Afghanistan, seize control of Pakistan, capture the Arabian Peninsula and, having created a solid power base, liberate Kashmir and then-Soviet-held Central Asia before attacking the United States.
2.) On it's surface, it might sound like a better plan. But once they own a country's government, then they become responsible for taking care of the people, rather than just being a socio-economic "leech" and subverting/blackmailing the existing regime.
Furthermore, once a nation has essentially gone "militant", it becomes a visible, and viable target for western opponents. Even with nuclear weapons, they are limited in their ability to deliver them, so they become a "political shield" the regime can hide behind. But they still remain a geographical entity that can be politically, economically, and militarily confronted..
3.) Remaining on the periphery of political power, continuing to blackmail existing Arab governments rather than seeking to actually overthrow them, keeps the existing regime from being pushed into a corner and lashing back with unbridled repression and military action (as we're increasingly seeing in Pakistan). Zawahiri, by now seeking to overthrow Musharraf, has now rolled the die for him, leaving him little choice but to risk civil war.
4.) Al-Qaeda recognizes that now that they have attacked the US, we're hunting them down. They don't have a place to call "home"... But it's this very ability to hide in the shadows, keeping the US and it's allies on economic and social edge, striking at a time and place of THEIR choosing and not the US, that is their greatest advantage. By attacking the US homeland, they have gone too far... They should have remained content to attack US interests overseas until they could persuade (brainwash) sufficient numbers of people to their cause.
5.) Al-Qaeda needs to continue to operate on various fronts, and especially in Saudi Arabia.. Control over the holy sites of Mecca and Medina would give them tremendous credibility. But of course, neither the US, nor the Israelis or Jordanians (let alone the Iranians), would tolerate such an event to transpire. There would simply be too much at stake.
Zawahiri certainly understands NOW, in retrospect, that attacking the US was a mistake. But he cannot count upon the US just "forgetting" and not supporting any state that found itself targeted by Al-Qaeda for subversion.
And he's right that by attacking the oil-producing states, he's killing the goose that laid the golden egg (like the May 12th attack that stirred up the Saudis).
He's also right that Indonesia and Somalia are attractive targets. But there's also Africa as a fertile breeding ground. But again, the minute the Jihadists assume the responsibility for a national economy, they will fail. Their only hope is to "milk" the oil wealth as Iran's militants have done for the past 20 years. Most of these other poverty stricken nations have nothing, and eventually the people will blame the Jihadists for being just one more failed economic model..
Thus, they need to remain the "thorn in the side" and not to make the mistake of thinking they can operate a viable economy via Koranic precepts.
But of course, their hubris, and lack of understanding as to how an economy actually functions, will ultimately prove their undoing.... But in the meantime, many thousands (millions?) will die..
Hawk |
