Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: AC Flyer who wrote (39621)	10/17/2003 12:03:16 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<You are predicting that the telecomm industry will see sub 1% annual revenues growth for the next 20 years. Hmmm. You have got to stop drinking the doomster Kool-Aid. > ACF, I got off the phone an hour ago after whining to Telecom New Zealand that their internet service is too expensive per megabyte. I'm going to switch to Woosh, where I can get seven times the data for the same price, albeit at a slower speed. But I get mobility thrown in for no extra charge. I bought a CDMA2000 phone earlier this year for about a fifth of the cost of my first CDMA phone back in 1998 which was much cheaper than my first cellphone a few years before that. Not only has the price gone down, the functionality has zoomed up. I switched to CallPlus a few months ago for toll calls after making the mistake of making a 3 hour conference call to Oz earlier this year via Telecom New Zealand, which cost me NZ$120. Now I can talk for 2 hours for NZ$2. I have invested in QUALCOMM and RoamAD which are developing technology to deliver fast and cheap cyberspace all over the place, be it voice or data. Telecom revenues might not drop because the usefulness of the data is increasing. My total spend on telecoms has zoomed from almost nothing a decade ago because it was all too expensive to use back then, when a few minutes on Compuserve cost several dollars and international toll calls were more expensive than flying there [slight exaggeration there]. Maybe total telecom revenues will increase due to 6 billion people coming on stream. But maybe it'll drop due to total spend per person dropping as competition and new technology make bit prices negligible. Meanwhile, everyone on Earth seems to want to buy those amazing phragmented photon CDMA cyberspace services. So I'm happy to stay invested and wait to see how large demand becomes. India is going nuts buying CDMA. So is China. So is Japan. Korea is already full of it. Mqurice

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