kerry going down the tube:
Democratic voters in the three states are divided over their choices for the nomination. In Iowa, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) and former Vermont governor Howard Dean were running roughly even with each other (27 percent to 26 percent). Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) was the only other Democrat to hit double digits in that state (16 percent).
In New Hampshire, Dean held a solid lead over Kerry (38 percent to 21 percent), with retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark the only other Democrat in double digits (11 percent). In South Carolina, Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) registered 14 percent, but with five other Democrats between 10 percent and 13 percent, the race there appears mostly unformed.
Dean's candidacy gained support and energy through his strong opposition to the war in Iraq, but the polls show that his position is favored by a minority of likely voters in each of the three states. In Iowa, 37 percent of the likely caucus attendees said they preferred a candidate who had always opposed the war; 59 percent said they preferred someone who backed ousting Hussein but also criticized Bush's approach.
New Hampshire voters were nearly identical in their views. In South Carolina, the division was less significant, with 41 percent saying they preferred someone consistently opposed to the war and 50 percent saying they wanted a critic of Bush who also supported action against Hussein.
"They're not looking for a Johnny One-Note who has passed a litmus test on Iraq as the sole criterion for selecting a candidate," Greenberg said, adding that many Democrats "want someone with a more nuanced position on Iraq than simply opposition from Day One -- and that includes a fair number of Dean voters."
In all three states, likely Democratic voters said they preferred a nominee who supports the party's core values and stands up to Bush rather than one who appeals more broadly to independents. Asked whether it was more important to nominate a candidate who stands up for Democratic Party values or one who has the best chance of defeating Bush, Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic voters said electability was more important.
In South Carolina, where African American voters make up more than 40 percent of the likely primary electorate, voters narrowly favored someone who stands up for the party's core issues.
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