Daily Report October 17th, 2003
Dear Member,
-Stock Indices: Nasdaq Comp, DJI, S&P500
The positive economic data confirms the economic recovery, but was limited with the negative impact of IBM and Caterpillar. The buyers and the sellers played tug of war all day with low volume. If you are on the side of the mid and long term view, the economic situation seems to be more prospective for the continuation of a rise. For the short term the valuation for the stocks are too high and involves profit taking. The buyers are timid to buy at such high levels and the sellers are hesitant to sell over the data for an economic recovery.
This situation confirms a little bit more of the wedge scenario that we support here. Ideally a correction of 2 to 3 days then followed by a new upward rise towards the medium term objectives to 2000/2050 for the Nasdaq, 1080/1100 for the S&P500 and 10000 for the Dow. The chart of a bearish short term reversal from Wednesday (new high followed by a close on the low of the day) shows a consolidation to come for the short term. Confirmation of the correction is below 1920 for the Nasdaq, 1040 for the S&P500 and 9700 for the Dow. The objectives are to 1860/1840 for the Nasdaq, 1025/1021 for the S&P500 and 9540/9500 for the Dow. The highs from Wednesday must remain unbroken for the continuation for the consolidation inside the bullish wedge.
The results from Sun Micro fell and the outlook for eBay looks weaker for 2004 will weigh on the trend today and can start the consolidation. The support levels of 1920 for the Nasdaq, 1040 for the S&P500 and 9700 for the Dow will definitely be levels to keep on eye on. Below these levels the short term long positions will have to be sold.
It will not be an interesting today on the earnings side but we are looking at the economic data from the real estate market at 8:30am and the U of M confidence index with expectations of 88.1 vs. 87.7.
Resistances Short term
Nasdaq: 1954, 1966, 1985, 2000, 2050
S&P500: 1052, 1063, 1070, 1080, 1100
Dow: 9850, 9900, 9935, 9970, 10000
Supports Short term
Nasdaq: 1930, 1915, 1905, 1872, 1860, 1840
S&P500: 1040, 1023, 1016,1013, 1005, 1000
Dow: 9745, 9700, 9650, 9635, 9584, 9400
Earnings
Date Compagnie Symb Time Esti
10/17/03 Peoplesoft Inc PSFT No Time 0.111
Falconbridge Ltd FL.TSX No Time cad 0.238
Rogers Comm RCIb.TSX Bef Mkt cad -0.193
Have a nice day,
Jean M Bourgineau |
