Our lead story today comes from Sarasota, Florida, courtesy of the International Herald Tribune. There, it is reported that the Metheusela of investment mavens, John Templeton, 92, says you should get out of U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar and 'excess' residential real estate.
Templeton believes the dollar will fall 40% against other major currencies... and that this will lead the nation's major creditors - notably Japan and China - to dump their U.S. bonds, which will cause interest rates to run up, thus beginning a long period of stagflation.
The Florida reporter felt he should get a second opinion from the local brokers and fund managers. None wanted to contradict the great man directly, but neither did they want their customers to think he might be right. "It probably won't be that bad," was the gist of their remarks. "Bush wouldn't let the dollar fall too much," said one. Another thought she saw a way to undermine Templeton's authority. His age, she noted, "could count against him."
Templeton was still sharp in 1999. While the financial industry hacks in Florida were urging their customers to buy more tech stocks, Templeton warned that the bubble would soon burst. He was right; they were wrong. Of course, he was only 88 back then. |