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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 295.15-2.3%Nov 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (12091)10/17/2003 12:32:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95397
 
Sarmad, It is frustrating at times - this is one of those times.

<<I guess things are going the way you described. Report a good quarter, and the stock goes down.>>

I have had this happen to me so many times in the past, I try to forget. At least for this time, I made the right choice to "take it easy" for a change and not jump in when the good earnings were announced.

Speaking of XLNX, here is a news items from Briefing.com this morning.

<<10:50 ET Xilinx: Ugly qtr, shares likely to be pressured; would be buyers in mid-$20s -- American Technology Research (XLNX) 29.16 -0.99: Although firm retains its Buy rating, believes that bears are likely to prevail in near-term trading, as revenue weakness will overshadow any operating results strength.>>

Also, some other interesting "downgrades" as reported by
Briefing.com

<<07:32 ET Advanced Micro downgraded at Soundview, upgraded at Deutsche (AMD) 13.96: Following much stronger than expected earnings, Soundview downgrades AMD to Neutral from Outperform, while Deutsche upgrades to Hold from Sell and raises their target to $15 from $6; Soundview believes that now is the time to take profits, as the shares have enjoyed a great run in the past couple of months and they believe that AMD is reasonably priced in the mid-teens. While Deutsche remains deeply skeptical of AMD's ability to morph into a value-creator, they believe strong momentum and relatively low valuation multiples will provide sufficient near-term ammunition for the bulls.>>

See - that is the way to do it - wait until better than expected earnings, and then downgrade the stock.

<<07:48 ET Broadcom cut to Sell at Smith Barney (BRCM) 32.68: The downgrade from Hold is based on high valuation and an expected downshift in momentum. According to firm, the key pt is that BRCM's QoQ sales growth momentum will likely be uneven and relatively low for most of 2004; that is a very different pattern than the strong double-digit QoQ growth experienced for much of 2003. Firm maintains $28 price tgt.>>

BRCM is down 6+ percent this morning selling at 30+.

<<08:35 ET Micron downgraded at UBS (MU) 12.83: UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and cuts their target to $13 from $19 based on their belief that DRAM pricing has reached a seasonal peak and is not likely to increase further during the Dec qtr; firm notes that MU stock is highly correlated with DRAM pricing, and thus believes there is little upside potential in the near-term.>>

MU is down 1+ percent this morning and selling at 12+, doesn't have far to go to reach the new target price of 13.;-)

<<Hopefully, buyers will regroup in the run-up to year-end.>>

I think we are going to have a good runup after the earnings reporting "season" is over, and on into the new year.

Don
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