Could 2003 Be Another 1999?
Online staff -- Electronic News, 10/17/2003
1999 and 2003 have more in common than meets the eye.
In an October update of the McClean Report, IC Insights notes the similar economic patterns between 1999's quarters and 2003's quarters.
"It is interesting to compare the sequential quarterly growth rates during the last semiconductor industry 'boom' period (i.e., 1999-2000) with actual first half 2003 results and the forecast for the second half of 2003 and all of 2004," Bill McClean, president of the research firm, said in the report. "The results of the first two quarters of 1999 were terrible with a Q1 1999 decline of 1 percent and a flat Q2 1999. However, the second half of 1999 was a 'screamer.'"
After a poor first half, Q3 and Q4 1999 registered two of the best sequential quarterly growth rates ever witnessed in the semiconductor industry, the report noted. The 1999-2000 semiconductor industry surge lasted five quarters, ending in Q3 2000. Then the decline began, continuing through the first three quarters of 2001.
"The first two quarters of 2003 were comparable to the first two quarters of 1999, with little overall growth," McClean said. "However, similar to Q3 1999, Q3 2003 is forecast to show significant double-digit sequential growth. Assuming a 6-7 percent Q4 2003 semiconductor market increase, full-year 2003/2002 semiconductor industry growth will be about 14-15 percent."
IC Insights expects relatively tame quarterly results for 2004, with the largest increase expected to be registered in Q3 2004 of 9 percent and Q1 2004 with a 1 percent sequential market decline. Still, even if the firm's moderate estimates come to light, the semiconductor industry would record a full-year 22 percent to 23 percent 2004/2003 market increase.
Cypress Semiconductor Thursday also made predictions of a 2004/2005 boom while reporting its Q3 results. The wireless player, which saw gains in income and sales, attributed its September quarter to a broad-based recovery that could lead to a boom starting next year. |
