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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 203.14

-0.8%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Petz who wrote (103211)	10/17/2003 9:30:01 PM
From: eCo	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Petz, If Inquirer's unit projections were real, and AMD made those numbers for K8 (which I presumed they did since there appeared to be spot shortages), then it's relatively simple to see what happened to K7. Using $503M cpu revenue, K8 took up about $28M of that. That's assuming ASP's of $300 and $400 for A64 and Opteron respectively, but small variations up or down there won't change that number significantly. So that leaves $475M or so for K7. At 7M units (the Q2 unit sales guesstimate), that's an ASP of $68. At an ASP of $57, that's 8.3M units (that number, interestingly, matches the Inq. projection). I think the real numbers are closer to the latter, than the former. Given Panic Mob's tables a few posts ago, perhaps the bulk of those extra units went East. This analysis breaks down if they actually sold more K8 than those projection numbers. But if that's the case, then their yields must be much better than they anticipated when they generated those projections. And that would be very good news as well. eCo

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