<There is "compelling evidence" that a new bull market began in October 2002 and is likely "in the first half" of its life cycle, Jim Stack, editor of InvesTech Market Analyst, declared Friday morning. The median duration of 15 bull markets since 1928 is 3.4 years, and the median gain for the S&P 500 is 76.7%, he noted. The current advance is just over a year old, and the S&P has risen 33.6% from its October closing low.>
I was looking at this exact same thing. I believe it is a full-fledged cyclical bull. However, Stack misses one critical item - he averages all bulls. When you separate cyclical bulls within secular bears from those within secular bulls, a very different picture emerges. Basically, they all work on the 48-month cycle. In secular bulls, they spend 2/3-3/4 of the time going up, with the remainder in correction. In secular bears, you just reflect it in the mirror - 2/3-3/4 of the time is spent going down, with the remainder up.
We are now in the turn window for us to spend 2/3-3/4 of the cycle going down.
BC |
