< disagree that the whacko muslims are likely to be able to cause 'massive damage' any time in the near to medium term >
1. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and short/medium-range missiles. They have had repeated coups, abrupt changes in regimes. Their army, intelligence services, and general population have a lot of sympathy for Bin Laden. They created, fostered, and armed the Taliban. At any time (maybe tomorrow), the Islamists (who already are in the government of 2 out of 4 provinces) could come to power.
2. Iran will have nuclear weapons within 3 years, perhaps much sooner.
3. N. Korea claims to have nuclear weapons, and has threatened to sell them.
4. In the chaos of the collapsing Soviet Union, a lot of technicians who know how to make nuclear weapons, and a lot of weapons-grade material (by far the hardest part of making a weapon) went missing, and is still unaccounted for.
5. It's not the threat you know about that's most dangerous. It's the threat you aren't aware of, aren't even seriously considering. Like 9/11.
The only prudent policy, is to assume Bin Laden and Hamas already has a nuclear weapon, and act accordingly. If they don't yet, or can't deliver it yet to our cities, that's still the best policy, because it's only a matter of time. |
