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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 78.70+2.2%Jan 27 3:59 PM EST
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To: rkral who wrote (64990)10/19/2003 9:28:53 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
Hi rkral, no, you are correct in that 20% retiring will be partially replaced by incoming entrants to the job force. What I said that I doubted was that the labor force would remain constant. A few years ago I read a book by Harry Dent that talked about demographic trends and it shows alot of graphs on this. I don't believe alot of his conclusions are accurate, but I do not doubt that our labor force will shrink dramatically starting in 2009.

The only thing that could reverse that trend is largescale immigration. However, we are becoming more isolationist and unfriendly to immigrants post 9/11. So I doubt that we'll open the immigration spigot any time soon. It will take a protracted bear market and several prominant economists to lobby congress before we get them to let large scale immigration replace the lost baby boomers in our labor force.

In the mean time, it means job security for a a time, that is unless the loss of the labor force causes a capital contraction, which spirals into a recession and long term bear market, which in turn destroys profits and leads to job losses, which reduce consumer spending, etc, and a spiralling downward mess. Then we're all screwed.
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