Latest Zogby Poll Numbers (highly reliable)
Released: October 20, 2003
Bush Job Performance Under 50; Leads all Democrats; Still Behind on Re-Elect and Against Generic Democrat; Majority of Likely Voters Proud of Bush, New Zogby Poll Reveals
Bush Job Performance Under 50; Leads all Democrats; Still Behind on Re-Elect and Against Generic Democrat; Majority of Likely Voters Proud of Bush, New Zogby Poll Reveals
Likely voters remain divided on President George W. Bush-s job performance, with half (49%) saying it is excellent or good and 51% saying fair or poor. Earlier in September, the president-s job performance rating reached the lowest point since pre-Inauguration, with 45% positive and 54% negative, then bounced up slightly in late September polling.
Bush Job Performance
Positive %
Negative %
October 15-18, 2003
49
51
September 22-24, 2003
50
49
September 3-5, 2003
45
54
August 2003
52
48
July 2003
53
46
March 2003
54
45
September 2002
64
36
September 2001
82
17
August 2001
50
49
January 2001
42
36
The Zogby America telephone poll of 921 likely voters chosen at random was conducted October 15 - 18, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Error margins are higher in sub-groups.
Overall opinion of Bush slipped slightly from September Zogby numbers. Nearly six in ten (56%) have a favorable opinion and 42% an unfavorable opinion now, compared to 58% favorable and 41% unfavorable in September 22 - 24 polling.
The president would outpoll any of the current leading Democratic contenders if the election were held today. He would earn 46% of the vote against retired General Wesley Clark-s 37%; would beat former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, 47% - 39%; would poll 45% against Massachusetts Senator John Kerry-s 41%; would win over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt 47% - 38%, and would beat Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, 46% - 38%.
Yet when matched against an unnamed (generic) Democratic presidential contender, Bush would lose that theoretical match-up with 43%, compared to the Democrat-s 45%. In September polling, Bush would have lost to a generic Democratic, 41% - 45%.
Date
Bush %
Any Democrat %
October 15 v 18, 2003
43%
45%
September 22-24, 2003
41%
45%
September 3-5, 2003
40%
47%
August 2003
43%
43%
June 2003
44%
37%
The President remains behind in his -re-elect- numbers, where 42% of likely voters now say he deserves to be re-elected, while half (50%) say they think it is time for someone new. In early September polling, 52% said it was time for someone new, and just two in five (40%) said he deserves re-election.
Date
Re-Elect Bush
Someone New
October 15-18, 2003
42%
50%
Sept 22-24, 2003
43
49
Sept 3-5, 2003
40
52
August 2003
45
48
June 2003
49
38
Only about two in five (43%) say they think the US is headed in the right direction, while half (50%) feel it is on the wrong track.
When asked if they are proud or ashamed of George W. Bush as President, nearly three in five (57%) likely voters say they are proud, one-quarter (26%) say they are ashamed, and one-fifth (18%) are not sure. Nearly nine in ten (87%) Republicans say they are proud, compared to 4% who say they are ashamed. A majority (51%) of Independents are proud, with 30% -ashamed,¦ while 31% of Democrats say they are proud of the president and 43% are ashamed.
Four Top Democratic Contenders Just Four Points Apart
Dean tops the list of nine Democratic hopefuls with 12%, followed by Clark with 10%, Kerry at 9% and Lieberman at 8%. Gephardt and former IL Senator Carol Mosley Braun are tied at 5%, while NC Senator John Edwards and civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton are tied at 3%. Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, who officially declared his candidacy last week, earned 1%. Six percent of the likely Democratic primary voters would opt for still another candidate, and nearly two in five (38%) remain undecided.
In late September national polling, Clark and Dean shared the lead with 12% each. No other candidate reached double digits, and Kerry led with 7%, followed by Gephardt at 6%. Lieberman had 5% of the vote, and Sharpton and Mosley Braun tied at 4% each. Edwards had 2%, and Kucinich and Florida Senator Bob Graham earned 1% each. Graham dropped from the race prior to the most recent poll.
Polling of Democratic contenders involved 500 likely Democratic primary voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
The poll was part of Zogby International-s ?Road to Boston¦ series, following contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination at the July 2004 nominating convention.
Zogby America X-Tabs:
If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote - the Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic candidate?
Overall opinion - George W. Bush
Overall, how would you rate President Bush's performance on the job?
Do you think President Bush deserves to be re-elected, or do you think it is time for someone new?
US Direction
Are you proud or ashamed to have George W. Bush as President of the United States?
Thus far, the Democratic candidates for President in 2004 are Howard Dean, John Edwards, Richard Gephardt, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley-Braun, Joe Lieberman, Al Sharpton, and Wesley Clark? If the primary were held today, for whom would you vote? (Asked of Democrats only)
Do you think the Republican Party should re-nominate George W. Bush for president, or should they nominate a different candidate? (Asked of Republicans only)
Each question will include cross tabulations for the following subgroups:
First Age Group
Breakdown Second Age Group
Breakdown
Political Ideology
Progressive/very liberal, Liberal, Moderate, Conservative, Very conservative & Libertarian 2000 Presidential Vote
Gore, Bush, Buchanan, Nader & Someone else
Gender Household Income
Political Party
Democrat, Republican, Independent, & Libertarian Ethnic Group
White, non-Hispanic, Hispanic, African American, Asian/Pacific & Other/mixed
Religious Affiliation
Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim & Other/no affiliation
Region of U.S
East, South, West, & CentGrLk
Education
Born-again
Race
White, Hispanic, African American, Asian, & Other Live
Large City, Small City, Suburbs, & Rural
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