More views we can use, from He Who Does Not Exist:
Date: Mon Oct 20 2003 14:09
trotsky (CSFB) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"PCS: CSFB Prefers Gold Stks w/ Best Risk/Reward [delayed]
Ridgeland, MS, OCT 20, 2003 ( EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX ) --CSFB believes the macro-economic environment is supportive of current gold prices, largely due to the increasingly bearish outlook for the US$. As a result, the firm raised their 4Q03 gold price forecast from $350/oz to $380/oz, 2004 forecast from $335 to $375 and 2005 forecast from $325 to $350. However, they remain cautious on additional upside potential, suspecting that the continuation of the economic recovery in the US in 2004 will serve to diminish gold's appeal as a store of value among alternative investments. As such, they prefer the North American gold producers that offer the best "risk/reward" tradeoff within the group.
CSFB kept ABX ( price target from $21 to $23 ) , PDG ( from $14 to $16 ) and AEM ( from $13 to $15 ) at Outperform; NEM ( from $36 to $42 ) at Neutral and GG ( from $11 to $12 ) at Underperform. The firm thinks that ABX, PDG and AEM will participate significantly in a rising gold price environment. At the same time, they believe these shares offer investors better downside protection relative to the peer group should gold bullion prices not reach the lofty levels expected by some market participants."
comment: note that CSFB has an atrocious track record w.r.t. its recommendations in the gold sector. the above is excellent news for GG, which has been deemed to be an underperformer by CSFB for as long as i can remember - and has of course outperformed ever since, not surprisingly. in what way ABX of all companies is set to "participate significantly in a rising gold price environment" is truly beyond me , and the same probably goes for PDG ( which i like, but for different reasons ) . those are the most heavily hedged miners, and thus actually set to profit the LEAST from a rising PoG.
finally, CSFB emphasizes North American miners, at what is probably the end of their show of relative strength / outperformance. in view of this CSFB tidbit i'm more convinced than ever that in the next phase, NorthAm miners will underperform vs. their overseas peers, especially the South African mines.
Date: Mon Oct 20 2003 13:11
trotsky (stock market) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
crashes that are widely expected don't take place - the only question is, how much higher must the market go before the bears capitulate? Rydex ratios, put/call OI ratios, short interest ratios, all show that a big contingent of market participants continues to be positioned for a huge decline. it seems therefore likely that the market will continue to rally - until the 'new bull market' becomes a widely accepted 'new reality'. did you know that 300 million units of the QQQ are sold short? or that there are currently 164 puts open on the QQQ for every 100 calls? it sure looks like 1. the longs are fully hedged ( which means, they don't NEED to sell ) and 2. the bears are going for broke.
conclusion: expect even more stock market strength before the top comes into hailing distance. |
