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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Real Man who wrote (66904)10/20/2003 4:46:13 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
The bottom in rates in Japan was 0%
Why not here?

Now if you mean the bottom on the 10 and 30 year, I agree with you 100%, as we are NOT in control of those. Everytime you say interest rates have bottomed your commentary seems to be about Fed Fund rates, but your examples and analysis seems to be on the 10 YR (as that is what is truly out of Greenspan's control)

It is possible that the bottom of the Fed fund rate is in but I see possibility of 1/4 - 1/2 lower on a panic move by the fed (possibly next summer if certain things happen)
The stock market starts sinking, gold is not soaring (slowly making higher highs is probably not a problem) and the US$ doe not fall off a cliff from here or better yet puts in a DCB to say the 95 area and can chop around 91-95 for several months)

It is Funny.
The US wants the US$ higher to steady against the Euro but Lower against the YEN and YUAN(but thay have ZERO control on the YUAN. Japan OTOH wants a stronger US$ vs the YEN and I am not sure if they care about US$ vs the EURO. I think Eurupe wants a stable US$ right about here. Given the manipulations that everone wants, we could easily see the US$ propped up for a few more months until everyone is just FN forced to give up.

M
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