Hello Pezz, Today’s Report, titled “Desperately Seeking Loot”:
I renewed registration of my secondhand 1998 Mazda 626 2000cc shopping cart (I used it to go to the supermarket only) at a cost of USD 748. By this standard, the new California governor has plenty of flexibility in raising car registration fee (without raising ‘taxes’ ;0). The car originally cost me USD 3,213, bought from a client/friend whose company fired a bunch of expatriates, when the odometer displayed 8,000 kilometers (about 5k miles) and the 12 months warranty was still in force for another 3 months. The odometer now indicates about 9500 kilometers, and I should be able to sell the car for 100% more than I paid for it :0)
I stopped by at the travel agent’s office to make preliminary arrangements for 2004 Chinese New Year’s vacation. The lunar New Year in 2004 is in the third week of January and many folks will probably simply stretch their Christmas/New Years break all the way to the end of January. We are trying to decide between playing on the water and resting next to the water. We shall see.
After arriving in office, I recorded the following trades done last night:
(a) I augmented my garrison troops by 70% in Canadian Oil Sands uk.finance.yahoo.com at CAD 39.30/shr. This follows up to my original effort at CAD 35.60/shr Message 19005086 <<June 5th, 2003>>. The garrison had also recruited some local dividends since occupation of base; and
(b) I shorted a dollop of NEM March Strike 40 Puts at USD 3.90/shr so as to top up the petty cash box, and to keep in practice and stay with tradition. I now hold NEM, and am short covered calls at 40 (Dec + Mar), 45 (Mar), and short puts at 35 (Mar) and 40 (Mar). If I am lucky, NEM will be at 40 on March expiration day :0)
I did not end up buying any of the illiquid emerging market shares I was being coy about Message 19414847 . I had some MSN Messenger conversation with two cousins in Venezuela and got scared off.
On the surface, the conditions in Venezuela seem ripe for pillaging: energy-backed economy, sharply devalued and two-tier currency setup, inflation @ 30%, interest rate @ 30-50%, social instability, and regime changing election in March.
Below the surface, the same sorts of things have been going on for an eternity.
I will have to look elsewhere for loot.
In hindsight, I have played my exit from the China/HK equity market badly. Since my exit at this point Message 19221008 <<August 18th, 2003>>. The shares had jumped about 30-50% in the last 45 days!
Given the China stocks that moved, against the HK stocks that did not move as much, I think a great deal of the money was wagering on imminent RMB revaluation, and overlooked the possibility of fiat enforced economic breaking by People’s Bank of China. So, however I feel inclined to chasing the train that got away, I must do absolutely nothing, wait for the correction that may be caused by (a) SARS, (b) China tight credit-induced slowdown, and/or (c) NYSE/Nasdaq correction.
I did some rough tally, and it appears that my 2003 YTD NAV increase is about comprised of 20% Lumacom gain, 30% other share gains, and 50% currencies and gold moves. The currency performance was greatly enhanced by the fortunate move from Euro to Canadian earlier on in the year.
Looking at the trail of dead bodies and debris achamchen.com , hearing the screams and sensing the terror, I must keep moving just as a combatant in the on-line Unreal Tournament Death Match esatclear.ie [EDIT: download file to sense the energy] must, else I am Maurice.
But, right at this moment, I am dazed, confused, indecisive, afraid, and unable to head one way or dash the other direction.
I shout silently at myself, “come on Jay, what is the Natural Trade, the Obvious Exchange, the Apparent Wager, and the Sure Bet” (“NToeAwsB”), and I answer my own question, “I don’t know for sure, but it sure ain’t Nasdaq long !”.
... and so I must find a place to hide, observe, pick off the loot one at an opportunistic time, as opposed to by the boatloads ;0)
Chugs, Jay |
