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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: mishedlo who wrote (66906)10/21/2003 7:37:17 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
I agree, anything is possible. A trade surplus (in case of
Japan) is different from trade deficit. So, 0% could not
save them from deflation. And, regardless of all the
carry trade and investment in the US, Yen did not fall. I
guess, that was because of the trade surplus. In the 30-s
US had trade surplus as well. Not now. 1.5 Billion a day
in foreign investment is required just to keep the dollar
steady. The collapse for all smaller debtor countries was
always the same - depreciation of the currency, rates going
higher, then currency and stock crash. We had a bunch of
those in the 90-s and early 00-s. Mr. Market always gets
what it wants in the end, Fed or no Fed. If there is a
perceived currency/inflation risk, short-term rates will
reflect it. JMHO. BWDIK? You may be right, for all I know,
cause the timing of this process is rather difficult.
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