Trufflette: Brinkler also said that while he doesn't see a major
correction (he defines as >10%) on the immediately correction, that
we could have a minor correction (<10%) at any time. Also said
that we might be in the middle of one. Might have run half its
course or it might be over.
The tone of all this was very much down playing, since his view is
that less than 10% is not worth playing with.
Personally, I think that there is about a 50% chance that the
market next week could lose another 200-400 pts. Its going to be
very twitchy on inflation news, now that the long bond has SHOT up
to 6.6 from 6.3, mostly in two days...
If long bond starts trading down, all is fine. If it stays where it
is, market will be very twitchy and probably down fair amount Monday,
watching the Wed. news. If the long bond keeps trending up, I'm
gonna do a lot more trimming.
Won't sell any of my core holdings with big gains, of course....
But newer stuff with less gains, non core with low or medium
gains, etc....
But thats only if...
My best guess is this turns into a 5% correction (from 2.5). On that
thesis I might trim a little or the low gain/tax stuff early Mon.
Basically I see as buying opportunity, and question is how much
to lighten up beyond what I've already done, to take maximum
advantage...
What do you think? |
