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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)
LU 2.515-1.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: stock bull who wrote (21388)10/23/2003 12:08:31 AM
From: elmatador   of 21876
 
See how I forecast two years ago and look if I was wrong:

Message 16383555

To:Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (11909)
From: elmatador Thursday, Sep 20, 2001 2:10 AM
View Replies (4) | Respond to of 12657

This is the way it is going to play in the next five years.
2001 second half the cool off starts to become visible and admitted. GSM reaches saturation in developed markets, only in developing countries new markets to extend footprint.

2002 negative outlook. 3G touted but not happening. GPRS does not reach expectation. Consolidation of telcos. Telcos run our of selling of non core assets: ex. directories business, small foreign owned operations. Wireless LANs start being established as credible kick off of 3G. Telcos try to sell local loop now that copper plant have only five years of economic life remaining..
GSM footprint extension reaches its maximum in developing countries.

2003 return to positive growth 0% to 5%. Dark fiber laid during bubble years start being lit. WLANs kicks off full-blown deployment. Local loop gets no interest. 3G starts deployment.

2004 return to historical level of 10% to 12% growth. Starts replacement of SDH/SONET technologies. Additional dark fiber being lit. 3G deployments speed up.

2005 Telecoms growth outpaces historical 10-12%. PSTN, having reached technical obsolescence starts being replaced. Low use fixed line users ported to mobile networks for low costs of administration. Copper local loop reaches technical obsolescence. 3G deployment in fullblown everywhere in the world.
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