Phil > guy on the CNN FN channel today predicting a steep decline in the US dollar. He used 1.40 Euro and 95 J.Yen to the dollar. His time frame was 5 years.
If I look at my regression models "in a certain way" I can also come up with such values.
What I find so fascinating about the currency markets at the moment is, while the America-bashers, speculators, prophets of doom and goldbugs are all forecasting the descent of the USD into the pit of Hell, a fall of the USD with the concomitant rise in the Euro and Yen will benefit no-one (except the speculators, of course). In fact, it will be to the detriment of international trade. Indeed, if the speculators can bring about what they desire, namely a collapse of both the USD and the world economy, not only will their prophesy be fulfilled, but they will be laughing all the way to the bank.
The recovery of the US economy depends on the ability of the US consumer to buy goods and, clearly, if the goods are too expensive, he will not be able to. Thus the embryonic recovery, which we hear so much about, will fizzle out. Meanwhile, company after company in Germany, France and Italy are announcing lousy profit figures which they attribute to the strong Euro. So, Europe is clearly under the whip with its currency at the present level. Japan, too, is no great shakes and it is far from recovering from its recession even though the NikkeiDow has come up to 11,000 and 109 Yen to the USD. For example, Sony, one of the Japanese giants, has just come out with awful profit figures.
So, there we have it --- what is good for the goose is not good for the gander. Or, more appropriately, what is good for the fox is definitely not good for the beaver?! |
