Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Jeffrey D who wrote (19660)	10/23/2003 10:55:06 AM
From: stockalot	Read Replies (1) of 42834

Recapping Jeff you said: "Market risk is something few people measure or understand. " and I pointed out the obvious fact that Brinker didn't understand the risk of the recent bear market as evident from his moves. Obviously Brinker doesn't understand it either or he would never have sent this home.netcom.com rode that and up to a 70% fully invested portfolio laden with tech and foreign holdings all the way down. Then again you try to change the topic to what some poster who doesn't claim to be a marketimer or to have the worlds one and only market timing model that tells you only two things according to it's owner--"bullish" or "bearish". Prior to 2000 Brinker always claimed if his model ever went bearish he would get out of the market 100% and maybe even short the market. So then you asked your standard question that shows your lack of depth in arguing Brinker's moves. You replied "Good point. Now, what did you do in January, 2000 and March, 2003? Jeff " By "Good point" I guess you admit that alluding to Brinker understanding risk in the market and holding a 70% fully invested position while sending that bulletin was rather silly. As to your ubiquitous question to someone who has never told another how to invest their funds...In Jan 2000, I tried to find out why someone who had spent the last 6 months telling us his model was either bullish or bearish and berating caller after caller who proposed keeping some of their stocks and funds if he issued a sell call, had flip flopped. In asking politely on his site and listening closely on the radio for the next several weeks, I heard rolling but not very sound reasons for his move. He was bragging on his technology laden Portfolio I and discussing how much money one would make if the market went up 10%. He was touting TEFQX as it climbed through the upper teens. He was saying he was "NOT BEARISH". He was claiming the Nasdaq could not be timed and was not a part of his call at all--even though the Nasdaq made up about 38% of the S&P 500 at that time. So in answer to your question in Jan 2000, I was beginning to learn you could not trust Brinker and that he would change anything he said based on what was happening. In Jan 2003 I predicted Brinker would use the time around the Iraq War to re-enter the market. That was the only time I predicted he would re-enter with the money he did not leave in originally or piss away in the QQQ disaster--30% or less for some folks who believed him. In March 2003 on a Sunday night I recommended that everyone look at Brinker's website closely for an imminent bulletin. I was off by 12 hrs. I learned by watching the guy spin and flip flop, by looking in to what he was up to under his aliases on the net, by observing his handling of an obvious undisclosed conflict of interest with UTEK, by watching the dishonest handling of TEFQX and the QQQ fiasco, that you couldn't trust Brinker. I would say that is the most important thing anyone could do in Jan 2000 or March 2003 if they were considering him a credible source of financial information. Others may disagree, but they usually do so not by arguing my facts, but by bashing the critic. :)

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