Yes Mondale and Dukakis both would have inherited major national debt and lousy economies. Carter's economy was a mess and Reagan left us with huge debts including the very expensive S+L debacle.
But 2004 is different in another way. GW is going to make 9-11 and his wars THE issue. His one great strength besides money is the notion that he is a strong defensive leader. Someone is going to have to take that away from him, and it's not going to be Dean. Remember, in national polls about 60% of the voters still admire Bush for taking on Saddam and being the war-monger. They may not approve of how he's done it but they respect him as a macho man. The better looking and/or more macho candidate usually wins, especially during war-time.
If Kerry doesn't make it, a Clark-Dean ticket is more likely that the other way around. Clark at least enjoys the support of the Clintons and their DLC and he currently leads or is tied with Dean nationally with Kerry right behind.
Dean is not an insider politician in DC. That's part of his appeal to disgruntled liberals, but it's also his achilles heel when it comes to the convention. As I've said before, don't expect any party powers or unions to endorse Dean. His grass-roots volunteers are going to have to do it all by themselves and they're going to fall way short of enough delegatesa to leverage Dean into the nomination.
The only ones I know of who back Dean are Rob Reiner and Martin Sheen, and they don't have any delegates. Dean will perform strongly with the anti-war left, but that was not even enough to win during the height of the Vietnam War. Dean also has a habit of shooting himself in the foot, gaffing and changing positions. He's going to have to be much more restrained and try to move to the middle, both of which will leave his leftist supporters disappointed.
If Dean closes in on the nomination it will mean he's sweeping the primaries. If this happens, the big story will be "have the Dems blown a golden opportunity to beat Bush by nominating a Vermont liberal?" It won't be pretty. Clark is so different from Dean that he wont help him much as a running mate. Remember Dukakis and Lloyd Bentsen? Dean is like a feistier Dukakis. He may do a little better than Dukakis did, but he won't be able to win unless some terrible scandal hits Bush. |
