Hello gg_cox, <<SWP gamble>>
I read their news release dated Oct 22nd and feel the fair sized company will either disappear or go up in value, at least go up before it disappears and so is worth a gamble.
The Pool generated CAD 0.07/shr of earnings in the past quarter, CAD 0.11/shr of cash flow, trades at CAD 0.35, and so is 3x quarterly cash flow, and 5 x quarterly earnings, or, doing the American thing with GDP accounting, annualized to 0.78 x annualized cash flow, and 1.25 x annualized profit ?!
Unless I am misinterpreting, the wager thus seems reasonable, at least more so than INTC.
I figure buy first and follow later, else would feel bummed if the thing goes to 5x annual earnings.
Wheat is cyclical, and so they may just have zero annual earnings, in which case I lose, say, 17% and learned something.
The <<gamble>> is but a risk/reward ration calculation. I do not fool myself into believing that I am 'investing' :0)
On dollops, tranches, wallops, figure three dollops to a tranche, and two tranches to a wallop. I generally reduce a wallop to a tranche, and raise a dollop to a tranche. A tranche is a 'full position' for a decent holding period (6 mths to 1 year), but is different in monetary value depending on the specific instrument/stock in question ;0)
Chugs, Jay |
