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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Theories
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To: macavity who wrote (769)10/24/2003 1:31:01 AM
From: macavity  Read Replies (2) of 1017
 
ST Outlook : US Market Indices.

ST OUTLOOK: BEAR/MIXED from BEAR


	MO	PVT	PVTHIGH	PVTLOW
$SPX	BEAR	#N/A	1035.44	1025.87
$OEX	BEAR	#N/A	515.59 	511.21
$COMP	BEAR	BEAR	1893.20	1874.11
$NDX	BEAR	BEAR	1387.01	1369.91
$INDU	BEAR	#N/A	9622.16	9551.73



Short Term
Market continues down.
Failed rallies in 'HOURLY' stochs should be sold while market trades below ST_PVTHIGHS.
DAILY stochastics [ST1_TRENDOSCILLATORS] are approaching, but not quite yet at, oversold levels.
As the trend weakens the length of the stochastic required to signal the turn increases.
It appears that we will need the 13d stoch to get to o/sold levels to call The Market o/sold.
There could be a couple more sessions left to this decline.

Intraday
Oversold HOURLY Stochastics offered intraday support yesterday to The Market.
Despite the initial drop by the indices, the open was bought and The Market made some headway up to close small down to unchanged. I covered my NQs relatively early in the day.
This in my view is the strength of looking at the HOURLY stoch - when it is o/sold or o/bt it gives you the heads up to watch for a turn intraday, which should it be confirmed it normally sees follow through.

The Indices closed with the 'HOURLY' stoch in their upper midranges to o/bought region, but more significantly the 'HOURLY' charts turned down at the close.
This may be a pre-cursor to the 'HOURLY' stoch closing down.
I shorted some ES and also shorted DAX futures, which for some reason were on a rally to 3515.

The (stochastic/cycle) bias for today is down if the 'HOURLY' charts and stochastics point/turn down.

For ESZ3:
It is pre-market open time here in Europe and the ESZ3 has traded down to 1018-75.

The EMA55 on DAILY charts is in the 1017-50 region, and there is that gap from a few weeks back at the 1021-00 level.
The EMA should offer some support - UNLESS WE OPEN AT 1018 or so.
This would set up the possibility of a MULTI-SESSION ISLAND REVERSAL as the low of the yesterday's session was at 1023-50.

So if we gap open below 1023-50 and fail to close the gap expect a monster session. Every man woman and child for themselves.

Short ESZ3 , FDZ3, Long YGZ3
Long USD short CHF/EUR,

-macavity
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