CVTX - CV Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : CVTX - CV Therapeutics, Inc.

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To: Todd N. Weisrock who started this subject	10/24/2003 1:58:07 AM
From: mopgcw	of 411

Lehman report CV Therapeutics (CVTX - $18.88) 2-Equal weight Current BVPS 6.43 Convertible Yes Debt To Capital 61.7% 52 wk Range 41.50 - 15.73 Investment conclusion CVTX faces considerable regulatory and commercialization risk given what we believe is an uncertain risk benefit profile for their angina drug candidate Ranexa Summary It was reported today that an FDA cardio-renal panel will review Ranexa on Dec. 9th following a previous withdrawal from panel in September. With a rapidly approaching Oct.30 PDUFA deadline where nonapproval would have been otherwise likely the prospect of Ranexa receiving a full panel review is seen as a near term positive We continue to believe, however, that CVTX will face difficulties in its FDA review and in particular expect a very critical briefing document to frame what we believe is an unfavorable risk-reward profile. In particular issues around syncope, drugdrug interactions and QTc prolongation in the supratherapeutic range that exceeds the FDA's stated threshold for concern will all be concerning for those reviewing the application. As such we reiterate our cautious view and equalweight rating in advance of this panel Valuation Our $23 price target is based upon applying a 35-40.0x on projected 2007 EPS of $1.68, discounted at 30%. The 35-40x multiple is inline with that historically afforded profitable biotech companies and is reasonable given the future growth prospects of CVTX. The 30% discount rate accurately reflects the risk of the stock, in our view. Analyst Certification: I, Jim Birchenough, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this

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