whether the trend is towards greater pacification, or greater turmoil
It seems to me that the trend, for now, is towards higher turmoil since the "end" of the war. The initial calm has given way to armed conflict, shootings, and US/UK casualties.
I have read more than once about how the streets are no longer safe, that there is no real law enforcement, that women are afraid to go out of their homes. That is very alarming. It may not have been that bright an idea to disband the police force AND the army - the former because of the dissolved order and the latter because now you have a lot of pissed of Iraqis with guns in their hands.
and whether the devolution of power to the Iraqis proceeds with all deliberate speed
Personally, I understand why Iraqis are frustrated with the "speed" of this process. There is a "governing council" whose members are APPOINTED by US occupation forces, and they have no real authority whatsoever. All they ever do has to be approved by Bremer.
I would say we have about two years for people to exhibit some patience
I am not so sure. I feel the US would do well to share the authority with Iraqis (in governance) and the UN (in peacekeeping & policing) while monitoring both (an American as head of UN force in Iraq, for example) so that this period of guidance will not look so much like an occupation. Any occupation creates resentment after a while, and the US control of Iraq is no exception, I believe. Iraqis' eventual resentment is a danger the US should avoid at all costs.
And on that note, I'm off. Have a good weekend :-) |
