“Clark’s candidacy is starting to fizzle,” said Zogby, “and Kerry simply is not connecting.”
Poll puts Dean farin front of Kerry
theunionleader.com
Union Leader News
Howard Dean has surged into a 40 percent to 17 percent lead over John Kerry, according to a new poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters.
National pollster John Zogby yesterday described his survey, taken Tuesday through Thursday, as astonishing. Recent polls had given Dean a smaller but substantial lead. Zogby and GOP strategist Thomas Rath agreed that Dean’s campaign would have to collapse for him to lose the primary on Jan. 27.
Dean drew 40 percent; Kerry, 17 percent; Wesley Clark and John Edwards, 6 percent each; Gephardt, 4 percent, and Joseph Lieberman, 3 percent. Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich and Carol Mosley Braun each drew less than 1 percent, while 19 percent of likely voters were undecided.
James Demers, state chairman for Dick Gephardt’s campaign, said, “I think we are now seeing two separate Presidential primaries in New Hampshire — the race between the two next-door neighbors and the separate race that involves the rest of the pack.”
Zogby said Dean swept all demographic categories, leading among all age groups, among union and non-union voters, and among self-described progressives and liberals. He led Kerry 43 percent to 30 percent among Democrats, 35 percent to 11 percent among independents, and 34 percent to 14 percent among moderates.
“This is stunning,” said Zogby. “This qualifies as juggernaut status.”
Zogby called Clark “the dynamic” in the race. In August, before the general entered the race, Dean led Kerry, 38 percent to 17 percent. But in late September, soon after Clark’s entry, Dean’s lead dropped to 30 percent to 20 percent with Clark third at 10 percent.
A month later, Clark is down to 6 percent and Dean’s lead is back up.
“Clark’s candidacy is starting to fizzle,” said Zogby, “and Kerry simply is not connecting.” He called Dean’s now reaching the 40 percent mark astonishing and said it was clear that the former Vermont governor is appealing to independents, including those who backed insurgent John McCain, winner of the 2000 GOP primary.
While cautioning that “anything can happen,” Zogby said, “Given where we stand now, it’s hard to see a way to stop Dean, especially if he has a strong showing in Iowa, which he very well may have.” Zogby likened him to Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and McCain in his ability to bond with voters.
Rath said, “If Howard Dean gets something close to a smashing victory in Iowa, it won’t matter who finishes second in New Hampshire. If he puts those two together, with the number of primaries and caucuses immediately following New Hampshire, the nomination could be decided by next St. Patrick’s Day.”
Rath said the Kerry campaign is at a crisis point. “Can John Kerry even hold second here if he finished behind Dean in Iowa?” Rath asked. “Where does he win?”
Demers said that just as Gephardt is focusing on defeating Dean in Iowa, Kerry “has to do the same thing in New Hampshire.”
The Zogby poll did show that neither front-runner Dean nor the other candidates have yet convinced voters they can win the general election. A full 60 percent of likely primary voters said it is somewhat or very likely President George W. Bush will be reelected.
Zogby surveyed 500 likely voters in the Democratic primary. Of them, 300 were self-described Democrats and 200 were independent or undeclared. The results of the survey, which had a 4.5 percent margin of error, was weighted slightly to reflect the expected voting population. |
