Miljenko,
First, my apologies for accusing you of a hasty response. I was responding only to a short extract of a response of yours that lacked much detail.
Let me analyze what we agree on and disagree on:
1. We both agree that citicoline will get approved by the FDA. You think there will likely be some label limitations; my own prediction based on the limited data that has been released is that there will be no significant limitations. (There appear to be no safety issues, and it is hard for me to see a limitation to only moderate/severe strokes or such a limitation having much effect in the market.)
2. We agree that citicoline is not the answer to strokes. However, I believe its use will be synergistic with any other stroke drugs that might be developed in the forseeable future, and that given it has a net positive effect and few safety issues, I think it will be widely used for most strokes. I don't think the Redux analogy is appropriate here - there have always been safety and effectiveness concerns with Redux that have clouded its prospects for widespread use.
3. As to the trial itself, I agree that there are several unanswered questions and issues. However, I still look to the bottom line of FDA approval.
4. You question the integrity of management. Here I am somewhat on the fence, and I certainly always look at their announcements fairly skeptically. I do not like it that there have historically been price movements in advance of news, although this seems to have improved recently. I have also followed the stock for several years, and first bought it at around $8 well before Redux was approved. I sold most (but unfortunately not all!) my holdings in the high thirties / low forties, and then picked up some more recently in the mid-teens.
I think that at this point the market has discounted bad news on the Redux front. One piece of good news for Redux will be when it is finally de-scheduled, at which point the royalty from AHP will increase (although the amount of this increase hasn't been publically announced as far as I know). I am convinced that phen-fen will be increasingly less used, and that Redux will pick up a chunk of this market.
My bottom line on this stock is that I think it will do well over the next year or so based on citicoline FDA approval. I have no long-term attachment to it - my long-term money is mostly in SEPR. :)
Peter
P.S. I follow your comments closely on a number of stocks, and certainly respect your strong scientific knowledge. |
