Some thoughts on potential "Paths to Victory" for various candidates...
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Path to victory means the sequence of events required to get any particular candidate to win the Democratic nomination. Path must be at least semi-plausible. Here we go, starting with the easy ones...
Sharpton, Kucinich, Braun. No paths available unless a meteor strikes the other six. And maybe not even then. (Draft Hillary? Gore?) I think Sharpton will get one or two delegates from DC. Braun does get her cabinet post. Probably Education, HHS, or HUD. She's got class.
Dean. Just run reasonably close to current polls. At least strong second in Iowa, win New Hampshire, then roll into the next batch with a number of wins scattered across the country, and that's the match.
Kerry. Win New Hampshire in an "upset" (looking less likely this week), then find at least one other state to win somewhere and soon. (Delaware might be one, but it's not enough. South Carolina very doubtful. Maybe New Mexico?)
Gephardt. Win Iowa, come in at least strong third in New Hampshire, win Missouri convincingly, do respectably in the other Feb 3rd states (North Dakota?), then set up Michigan as your big organizational battle with Dean.
Clark. Strong third in New Hampshire (although upset second over Kerry would be a huge bonus -- looking less likely this week), then try to media-roll into Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Arizona and win two out of three to get some momentum going. Maybe run ads in New Mexico as well since it's not terribly expensive. After that you've got Tennessee and Virginia (must wins), and then it's a real battle.
Edwards. Third in Iowa (thanks, Wesley), third in New Hampshire (and a bit stronger), then win in South Carolina. Hope everyone else destroys each other so you can emerge as the anti-Dean to hang on (skip Washington, Michigan, Maine) and win Tennessee and Virginia on Feb 10, then find something, anything, to win outside the region.
Lieberman. Hmmm... Don't really see a path, but let's try one just for grins. Comes in fourth in New Hampshire, at least second in South Carolina and wins, say, North Dakota for some bizarre reason (butterfly ballot?), then... Nope, I can't figure one out.
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-a friend emailed this to me...it was taken from a political weblog |
