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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (264754)10/26/2003 6:49:02 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
I worked offshore oil for years, and saw to many surprises
( and corruption ) to want to play the oil service field.
I gave it a try for a short time, but it takes a lot
of specialization to stay up with what's going on..
By the time you get the news from the media
it's cold as hell.
You might want to check out
bakerhughes.com
---
Keep in mind service stocks often follow rig count..
but often get priced up when the rumors of contracts hit
and get sold on the news.
Drilling contracts don't always follow the price
of oil, some times long term planing may do
a lot of drilling when oil prices are cheap..and
cap the wells. Other times prices are high
with whole fleets of loaded ships hiding out on
anchor.
Supply and demand is 80% bullshit,
& Oil prices are manipulated more under the
table by the Big conglomerates
than what OPEC does, at times
OPEC gets the heat , when they don't
deserve it.
-----
If I were to get back into oil service stocks
they would be all I would have time for..
and I'd have to get my ear to the ground
and my eyes open.
( like going by the ship yards and looking and
talking..they don't start building a lot of rigs
without contrats..so activity at the yards
often shows up before the news does )
---
I've not been staying in touch latley..but I did
notice recently that in Galveston Harbor a lot of excess
rigs are stacked..and that don't look good.
Look over that link good..and keep in mind RIG count
going up don't always mean a lot if they still have
a lot of rigs stacked.
4 or 5 years ago they were spending money like
there was going to be no end to the drilling..
and it's likely they over produced ( as usual )
and now have to work off all that excess.
Jim
BTW TDW is the best run company in the biz..
but I'm not saying they are a buy right now.
finance.yahoo.com
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