re Pipe's article:
The NeoCons are groping around for an exit strategy. The Powell Doctrine says the exit strategy has to be in place before the troops go in, but Powell didn't win that argument.
All the contracts and pre-selling of oil still in the ground, they are all dead letters. As soon as the Iraqis have sovereignty back, they will disavow all of it.
Bush gets re-elected, if:
1. the economic recovery starts producing jobs, and
2. we withdraw from Iraq in a way that lets the President pretend it was a victory.
Whatever Iraqi soldier ends up in charge of whatever armed forces actually control the ground in Iraqi populated areas, he will be the de facto ruler of Iraq. Pipes doesn't say who that will be, because there are no viable candidates who make the NeoCons look good. There has been a lot of talk lately, of U.S. soldiers withdrawing from populated areas, into fortresses where they will be safe, and won't irritate the Iraqis. This amounts to a de facto withdrawal. If no one single Iraqi controls the streets as we withdraw, then the result will be a Afghan or Somali-type Warlord State.
In the Age of Lies, everything gets labelled something prettier than what it really is. So, we won't call it "withdrawal under fire", but that's exactly what it'll be. |
