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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks
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To: c.hinton who wrote (2498)10/27/2003 12:44:13 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 108733
 
Japanese are in process of being totally overwhelmed
so what if Bank of Japan wants JYen lower?
market wants it higher

they have a 2.5% annual trade surplus versus USA

now the recent tipping factor imho was their new trade surplus with China
China converts a shitload of surplus USDollars for JYen
what they hold in reserve is converted to Eurobonds and Gold
or left in USTBonds

BUT THEY MUST RESOLVE THEIR JYEN BILLS DUE !!!

thus, the JYen will continue now to rise as long as China runs a whopping mathah of a trade surplus with the USA, or until they no longer run a whopping mathah of a trade deficit with Japan

I think shite hits the fan inside US Economy only when China has a HEALTHY ECONOMIC CORRECTION
I am not exactly sure why, but I just believe that will cause severe sea changes
and the only thing which will deeply affect the US Economy will be massive change to the horribly unstable equilibrium
gotta think this one through, havent yet really

perhaps only when temporarily sated on mfg capacity expansion, and running big Japanese trade deficits, will China be willing to raise prices across the board in WalMart and elsewhere, and witness revenue cuts
that makes sense
reduced exports to USA, only after reduced Japanese bills
by then, slightly improved Chinese domestic demand
but that would coincide with some mild Chinese recession
hard to figure all the pieces out here
yeah, yeah, like that

/ jim
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