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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (18647)	10/27/2003 1:58:29 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (4) of 57684

CNBC said this morning that October inflows were comparable to Feb 2000. Well, I'd like to get more detail on this. Because I have heard about these indicators which all scream rampant bullishness (the latest was the "total dollars on margin") and later on we find out the numbers don't mean quite what we thought. Just anecdotal evidence from workers in silicon valley, is that people still don't like stocks and are putting most of their money into real estate. That is what I am seeing around me. Also we have the devastated workforce which used to put half their salary into stocks month in and month out with the combination of ESPP and 401K, that is gone. And stock options buys are essentially gone or greatly diminished. Finally I have to assume foreign money is not attracted to USD now. As far as inflows, what are we seeing now vs. then and is the difference sort of "point in time" distortion vs. a steady stream of cash? For example in 98/99/00 were we seeing billions come into the market every month and Mar 2000 was a minor blip up as opposed to now where we have had no inflows for years and this is a sort of whoosh of people with savings that they were waiting to deploy until after the October period? Thats what I want to know. I say again that conventional wisdom is that this tech stock rally won't last, and that (at least for techs) this is a sort of rally within a bear market. I don't think it is a bear, I think its a bull which will last for awhile because this Linux push is causing a bunch of inovation and cracks in wintel and it reminds me of IBM in the early 90s. Well, lets see.

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