National defense should be the primary concern of our federal government. Funding it adequately, IMO, is essential. The thing that most people miss in this debate is that defense expenditures in real terms over the past 25 years (adjusted for inflation and population growth) have not gone up. Nondefense spending, on the other hand, has gone up quite dramatically in that same time period. Here are the numbers.
Over the past quarter century, our national defense expenditures (adjusted for inflation) have not been going up:
w3.access.gpo.gov (see Row 4 of spreadsheet)
National defense expenditures (in millions of nominal dollars)
1977: 97,241
1978: 104,495
1979: 116,342
1980: 133,995
1981: 157,513
1982: 185,309
1983: 209,903
1984: 227,413
1985: 252,748
1986: 273,375
1987: 281,999
1988: 290,361
1989: 303,559
1990: 299,331
1991: 273,292
1992: 298,350
1993: 291,086
1994: 281,642
1995: 272,066
1996: 265,753
1997: 270,505
1998: 268,456
1999: 274,873
2000: 294,495
2001: 305,500
2002: 348,555
2003: 376,286
2004: 390,419
2005: 410,092
2006: 423,192
2007: 436,437
2008: 460,546
(Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget; amounts for 2003 through 2008 are estimates)
Price levels have a little more than tripled since 1977 (305.61% from 1977 to 2003 using data.bls.gov. The population of the U.S. has also increased since 1977 from 220 million to 290 million (about 32 percent). So if defense spending over the past quarter century remained constant per capita (i.e., if we spend the same amount per person in constant dollars on defense now as we did then), the overall U.S. defense budget would be $392,275 million. In 2003, the actual number is $376,286 million, a little lower per capita in real terms than it was 25 years ago.
Nondefense spending, on the other hand, has increased since 1977 to a far greater extent:
w3.access.gpo.gov
(Subtract row 4, defense outlays, from line 35, total outlays)
National nondefense spending, 1977-2008 (in millions of dollars, 2003-2008 estimated, other numbers actual)
1977: 311,977
1978: 354,251
1979: 387,686
1980: 456,946
1981: 520,728
1982: 560,434
1983: 598,461
1984: 624,440
1985: 693,648
1986: 717,055
1987: 722,083
1988: 774,094
1989: 840,087
1990: 953,834
1991: 1,051,077
1992: 1,083,305
1993: 1,118,403
1994: 1,180,235
1995: 1,243,736
1996: 1,294,782
1997: 1,330,745
1998: 1,384,129
1999: 1,427,018
2000: 1,494,278
2001: 1,558,395
2002: 1,662,420
2003: 1,764,091
2004: 1,839,006
2005: 1,933,307
2006: 2,040,471
2007: 2,139,766
2008: 2,249,971
Using the same adjustments as above (305.61 percent increase in prices from 1977 to 2003, and 32 percent increase in population), maintaining the same per capita real spending level for nondefense items from 1977 to 2003 would yield a 2003 nondefense spending level of $1,258,531 million. The current year budgeted number for nondefense spending is $1,764,091, or roughly half a trillion higher than 25 years ago even after you adjust it for inflation and population increases.
Put another way, in real terms we have chosen over the past quarter century to increase nondefense real spending by half a trillion dollars and to decrease real defense spending by a few billion dollars. I use numbers like this as a reality check to see where a budget disparity has come from. It seems to me that when you are spending too much you have to take a hard look at where you have been increasing your spending and decide which priorities can be reordered. The entire increase in the budget over the past quarter century in real terms has been in the nondefense area. So that is where I would start.
I might also be inclined to scale back some of the projected increases in defense spending, though in the wake of 9/11 and the other failures of U.S. intelligence I am not convinced that starving defense and intelligence agencies of funds is necessarily the best approach. |
