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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (264812)10/27/2003 2:50:31 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
From Heinz:

<<<regarding the stock market, please note that my comments are strictly in a short term context. long term i'm as bearish as ever...it is really only the huge amount of put open interest and outstanding short positions that make me think the market may disappoint the bears in the short term. however, i think the potential upside is very limited, unless one manages to find the handful of stocks that still are due a bigger run - a guessing game basically. clearly the ultimate downside risk of the market outweighs the potential for short term gains considerably. so in this context, my views are designed to warn bears not to overdo it yet with the short side in this market, but rather let the market first show them it is ready to break. it is not meant to encourage buying into this wildly overvalued market, although experienced traders can surely still find opportunities for short term trades on the long side. i hope this clarifies my stance further - ultimately i believe we'll see new lows in the SnP , probably sometime in '04.
there has recenly been a blow-off rally in 'spread product', especially pronounced in the junk and emerging market bonds arenas - this is a warning sign for the bulls, as a similar blow-out to the downside last year marked a significant low in the stock market.
PS: i think you're right re. what created the current hesitant psychology...too many bear rallies have failed. note though that a bear market can't be complete unless this negative psychology turns to outright bearishness, a process that has yet to occur. note that public inflows into stock funds recently hit highs last seen in February of 2000 - another grave warning sign. at the ultimate lows of the secular bear we should see record withdrawals from mutual funds. >>>
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