Jim,
It's hard to believe that TMAR is now selling at 1/3 its low price from the bust in 1998, but the chart doesn't lie. As a one time shareholder of HMAR (some BBRers may remember it more fondly as HMARQ) I have no illusions about whether or not these companies can disappear.
As for timing a buy, it seems to get easier day by day as it falls. Personally I'd look for one of two things. Either a big blowoff day on big volume (over a million shares) or a longish (5-7 trading days) period of flatness in the price line and low volume bars, signalling the end of selling. If I had to handicap the odds, I'd say the latter is much more likely than the former, given the 4-month slow bleed from $4 to 1.25.
Just a quick look at the balance sheet and income statement (generally foreign territory to me) seems to indicate that TMAR could limp for quite a while, maybe long enough for that next great upturn in its business? If so, then the stock gains COULD (emphasis is mine, hey, the whole note is mine!) rival those sweet RRI gains from last year. Otoh, waiting in the shadows are the ghosts of Christmas Future, including reorganizations, reverse splits and bankruptcy/liquidation.
As with all stock punting questions, how low is low, how high is high?
(My only energy holding at this time is something I bought yesterday, a non-Russian named IVAN.)
Kb |
