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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (85083)	10/29/2003 9:37:05 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Green, "No interest in trading market yet when I don't believe its where it should be" This argument has been presented in some form or another by bears since the inception of the rally in March. Various fundamental reasons and a few LT technical reasons have been cited along the way as to where the market "should" be and what it "should" be doing, but I thought that one of the most elementary precepts of trading is that you trade what the market is doing, not what you perceive it "should" be doing. I always thought going with the flow was something everybody learned in Trading 101, along with "the trend is your friend until it ends," and the trend hasn't ended yet by most peoples' measurements. As far as "not a bear in sight" I believe mike's comment about the number of puts out there discredits that point, and I believe Jerry has a good point about the funds not yet doing any serious dumping that would point to a major impending trend change. About the idea of contrarianism and that if everybody is doing something then the trend must be on borrowed time, this argument has also been tossed around for the past several months to support the idea that the rally is over, and at the very least one can say that this general concept sure isn't helpful to one trying to time his entry point for a position short. That general idea, I feel, is part of the "noise" out there; look for something more technically specific for a trading guide rather than a general concept. As far as "no interest in trading the market right now" then why all the banter? Consider buying a single put or shorting 100 shares of something (that won't kill you) to test your conviction in your beliefs. If you have difficulty personally justifying such a move to yourself, just think of it as a temporary hedge.

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