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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Jeffrey D who wrote (19689)10/29/2003 1:25:51 PM
From: Tim Bagwell  Read Replies (2) of 42834
 
Jeffery, during the 1990s that you "could not afford to be out of the market for a single day."

Of course, I remember when Brinker made that and other public calls on-air. Those days are over and the only record of them are in the archives of discussion boards like this one.

The fact is that I doubt very few people benefited from such advice. Why? Because at the same time he was also saying to DCA into the market. So even with a successful call of a market low, many followers did not have significant cash to put in.

Then there's the credibility thing. For many of us who viewed Brinker as simply a radio talk show host, he had little credibility back then. I mean, you'd have to be crazy to take tips like that from a guy whose main claim to fame was calling sporting events. But then, that was the same period that WCOM promoted a basketball coach to CEO.

January, 2000 he recommended to get out of the market.

Not true. You distort the facts. Brinker made a tactical asset allocation to 65/35 in Jan. 2000. You know this. Plus, Brinker made no call of the impending bear market in equities. He also made no call of the bull market in bonds. It was a glaring statement of how little confidence Brinker had in his model. But most people were so ready to leave the market at that point that many chose to sell 100% and in so doing were far more correct than Brinker.

Then you conveniently leave out a spate of failed short term calls he made later in 2000 only to be so embarrassed that he turned tail and quit.

March, 2003 he recommended to get back in the market

A good call although he missed the actual bottom back in October 2002. In fact, he said nothing in October that indicated he knew anything about where the bottom was. Don't you find that odd if his model is supposed to be so good? When a retest occurred in March he was able to use some fairly simple TA with the knowledge that the 3 year historical time span for bear markets was ending. Still it was a good call but I don't get "warm fuzzies" that his model is that special.

Do you think your retirement account is better off than if you had not followed it?

Personally, I have not benefited significantly from Brinker's tips other than the long term timing calls that have been good so far. That is all that I follow today and I rate his accuracy at about 50%. With that in mind going forward, I am very skeptical that he will be correct on the cyclical bull which he has no experience with.

I think that people without stock market experience are crazy if they follow Brinker blindly.
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