To all, another post (ID 6850231) by BioGold on stockhouse.ca:
Was out of town for a funeral all afternoon, then home and WOW, what a nice suprise. I love the volume as much as the 7.77% gain.
I just have a gut feeling that something good is going to happen, can't figure out exactly how it is going to play out, but I think it is going to pull us out of this rut.
Generally when a biotech's lead drug is coming out of PII and the news is good, or expected to be good and PIII seems pretty certain, a baby biotech will make the move up to the next level in valuation. As the risk decreases, the valuation should rise. I firmly believe that this was happening back in June, right up until the day of the announcement of the top line data and the manufacturing delay-----which ultimately took all the wind out of Stressgen's sails.
I don't think that a valuation of $300 million US would be exessive, especially with the great safety profile and the pipeline potential. Right now Stressgen isn't really getting any value assigned for HspE7, much less any pipeline products, and believe me the Hepatitis B Vaccine is worth BILLIONS. (If it is successful, It will be worth much more than HPV) The market has just been penalizing Stressgen for the manufacturing delay and giving no reward for a drug that is working great (up to this point). We'll know more Friday and remember there is ALWAYS risk in biotech, something can go wrong at anytime. (But, in this particular case, I am not losing any sleep over it)
So, $300 million US divided by 67 million fully diluted shares is about $4.50 share US. Today's close is about $1.60 US. That is why I keep thinking we are so undervalued here. I have never owned another Canadian biotech, but I don't see why they should be valued any differently than a US one. By the way, at the conference Tarte said that approx 15% of the shares are held in the US now (I told him that is because I was getting all my friends and family members to buy the stock!--just kidding). The growing US ownership is good for us because the price of ANYTHING is always a function of Supply and Demand. Our supply is the aforementioned 67 million shares, but through a NASDAQ or AMEX listing, making it much easier to buy the stock here in the US, you are going to greatly incrase the DEMAND for the shares.
I firmly believe we are going to make some big money here, just haven't gotten a handle on the time frame.
B G
When Stressgen starts to trade on NASDAQ in the US, I will invite a number of people to begin posting here.
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