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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (40512)10/30/2003 4:25:41 PM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Thanks for the link, KC. Here are a few excerpts from the Stratfor analysis you referenced.

Continuing to confound conventional wisdom, 2003 is turning into a great economic year.........The roaring comeback of the economy does not surprise us, if we may be permitted to gloat. We have consistently forecasted that the U.S. economy would come back in 2003 much more strongly than most observers predicted. In our view, the recession was a mild, natural and necessary process that set the stage for the next phase of intense growth. In other words, the basic forces that were in place throughout the 1990s -- which are demographic and structural in nature -- have not been eroded by the excesses of the dot-com boom. This is a generational expansion that began in the early 1980s and likely will last well into the first decade of the 21st century........We regard the concerns about the U.S. deficit as being misplaced as well. The absolute numbers are meaningless. The only relevant measure is percent of deficit relative to gross domestic product. In 1983, when the United States was coming out of a recession, the deficit was 6 percent of GDP. When the United States came out of the recession in 1992, the deficit was 4.7 percent. As of Sept. 30, the U.S. deficit was running at about 3.5 percent of GDP. The deficit at the end of a recession is always at the top of the cycle, since tax revenues are at the low end of the cycle. So the current deficit is acceptable, even without taking into account that there is a war on.
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